Leafs hope to extend win streak in clash with surging Oilers

Hockey Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to post a third straight shutout when they host the surging Edmonton Oilers in an interconference clash tonight at Air Canada Centre.

The Maple Leafs have received terrific goaltending from James Reimer in their last two trips to the ice and hope to continue that trend tonight. The goaltender cooled off red-hot Pittsburgh by stopping all 25 shots in a 1-0 home victory on Wednesday and then posted a 49-save effort in Saturday's 5-0 rout Saturday in Ottawa.

Reimer's start against the Penguins was his first since Jan. 17 and his second of the 2012 calendar year. The second-year backstop figures to get the call over Jonas Gustavsson tonight and Reimer will enter this evening's game with a shutout streak of 138 minutes, 36 seconds.

Reimer stopped 12 shots in the first period, 21 in the second and 16 in the third to record his third shutout of the season and sixth of his career in Saturday's blowout over the Senators.

"It's obviously a lot of fun," Reimer said after the shutout in Ottawa. "I wish I could take credit for it, but the guys played unbelievable tonight. Our D-men played great, boxing guys out."

Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel each posted a goal and two assists for the Maple Leafs, who have won four of their last five and enter tonight as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with 60 points. Toronto is two points ahead of Washington for the conference's final postseason berth.

The Maple Leafs have won two straight and three of their last four home games and are boasting a 15-8-4 record at Air Canada Centre this season.

Edmonton comes into Toronto with three straight wins and the Oilers have posted 16 total goals over that stretch. The young club has also recorded a point in five straight (4-0-1), but the Oilers are still 11 points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Oilers' latest triumph came Saturday against visiting Detroit, as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins netted the game-winning goal in the sixth round of the shootout to lift Edmonton to the 5-4 decision over the Red Wings at Rexall Place.

For Nugent-Hopkins, it was his first game back since he suffered a left shoulder injury on January 2. The No. 1 overall pick did not have a point in regulation or overtime, but he was able to end the game in the shootout. Nugent-Hopkins picked up the puck at center ice and went in deliberately on Wings goalie Joey MacDonald. Nugent-Hopkins faked forehand-backhand and fired a quick wrist shot to the blocker side of MacDonald.

Devan Dubnyk stopped Danny Cleary on Detroit's final attempt to seal the win for the Oilers, who broke a seven-game slide against the Red Wings.

"I think we started out really strong and came out flying," Nugent-Hopkins said. "In the third period, we knew they were going to come out strong, we just had to weather that storm. They got a few good goals but in the end I thought it was a really good character win for us."

Coming off an amazing eight-point game in an 8-4 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday, Sam Gagner continued his offensive assault on the NHL with two goals and an assist in regulation. Jordan Eberle also added a pair of goals for the Oilers, who got 35 saves from Dubnyk en route to their first three-game winning streak since a six-game run from Oct. 22-Nov. 3.

The Oilers have lost six straight on the road and will try to end that streak when they open a three-game swing tonight. Edmonton is just 6-18-2 as the guest this year compared to a 15-8-3 mark at home and the Oilers will also visit Detroit and Ottawa on this trek.

Edmonton defenseman Theo Peckham has missed the last two games after getting hit in the face with a puck during practice. His concussion tests came back negative and he could play this evening against the Leafs.

Toronto has won two of three against the Oilers and the clubs haven't faced off since the Leafs posted a 4-1 decision in Edmonton on Dec. 14, 2010. The Oilers recorded a 5-0 triumph when the teams last battled in Toronto on Dec. 2, 2010.

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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