Mets resume rough road trip in Washington

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of a prolonged slump with four solid starts, New York Mets hurler Mike Pelfrey fell back into his struggling ways last time out.

That is sort of how his team has been all season long.

Pelfrey will try to get back on track today against a club he has struggled against in the past as the Mets visit Washington to begin a three-game series at Nationals Park.

A 10-game winner by June 25, Pelfrey then endured a seven-start stretch in which he went 0-4 with a 9.00 earned run average over seven starts. The right- hander then rebounded to win three of his next four starts, yielding just four earned runs in that span, before taking a loss in Atlanta on Wednesday after giving up four runs on nine hits over five innings of work.

"Obviously I have to get back to executing pitches," said Pelfrey after the setback. "That is the name of the game. I didn't execute very many pitches tonight. That's a good team over there."

Pelfrey dropped to 13-8 with a 3.72 ERA on the season, and his next victory will set a new career high. However, while he is 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA versus the Nationals this season, he is just 4-5 with a 4.02 ERA against the club lifetime.

New York can make things easier for Pelfrey today if it can continue to swing hot bats. The Mets pounded out a season-high 21 hits in Sunday's finale with the Chicago Cubs, avoiding a three-game sweep with an 18-5 triumph.

Ruben Tejada drove in five runs and hit his first career homer, while Ike Davis drove in three runs and scored three times, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. Jon Niese gave up five runs over six-plus innings in the victory, just the Mets' second in seven games so far on a 10-game road trip.

"Obviously my numbers don't look good on paper, but I'm thankful that our offense did a great job today," said Niese.

The Nationals have won five of their last eight and are also coming off a victory on Sunday, as they notched an 8-1 triumph over the Pirates in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Ryan Zimmerman drove in four runs for Washington, while Adam Dunn hit a solo homer and drove in two runs on the day. Jason Marquis gave up just the one run over six innings for the victory.

"Start by start I feel I'm getting closer to being consistent," Marquis said.

Jordan Zimmermann is also taking a start-by-start approach as he makes his third tonight since returning from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander was tagged for five runs over four innings in his return versus St. Louis on Aug. 26, but then limited Florida to just a hit over six scoreless innings on Tuesday. Zimmermann struck out nine without a walk, but earned his second no- decision of 2010.

"It's probably the best I've felt in a long time," Zimmermann told Washington's website. "I kept the ball down and actually got some fastballs inside, which I didn't do in my first start."

The 24-year-old is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in two career starts versus the Mets.

The Nationals have won seven of 12 versus the Mets this year, with the clubs splitting six meetings so far in Washington.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

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