Minus Howard, Red Wings visit healthy Oilers

Hockey Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings seem to finally be hitting their stride on the road, but they'll be without the league's leader in wins for the rest of their swing.

Minus goaltender Jimmy Howard, the Red Wings look for their third straight road victory on the season and eighth in a row overall versus the Edmonton Oilers, who try to extend a four-game point streak of their own this evening in the return of first overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Detroit is currently in possession of a club-record 17-game winning streak at home and is 20-2-1 as the host this year. That is compared to a 15-14-0 record on the road and the Red Wings were below .500 as the guest before returning from the All-Star break with wins at Calgary and Vancouver. Detroit was routed 7-2 in Montreal on Jan. 25 to begin this five-game swing.

Thursday's 4-3 shootout win over the Canucks did come at a price as Howard suffered a broken finger that will sideline him for the final two games of Detroit's trip. The Red Wings wrap the swing on Monday in Phoenix and Howard will be reevaluated when the club returns home.

Howard picked up his NHL-leading 32nd win on Thursday and is also among the league leaders with five shutouts. He made 22 saves versus the Canucks and stopped both skaters faced in the shootout.

Pavel Datsyuk and Jiri Hudler both scored in the deciding frame, while Danny Cleary, Drew Miller and Hudler scored in regulation. Miller's third-period goal with 7:55 left put the Red Wings ahead, but the Canucks forced the extra time on Mason Raymond's tying tally with 4:24 to play.

"We dig ourselves too many holes when we are on the road," said Detroit head coach Mike Babcock. "We can't do that all the time and expect to keep coming back."

Detroit, which leads the New York Rangers by two points for the most in the league with 71, recalled Joey MacDonald from the minors on Friday to back up Ty Conklin, who gets the start tonight. He'll be looking to slow down Sam Gagner, who matched an Oilers record with eight points in an 8-4 win over the Blackhawks on Thursday.

Gagner came into the game with just five goals through 43 games this year, but tallied four versus the Blackhawks. He also assisted on goals by Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Cam Barker and Ryan Whitney to match the club's single-game points record held by greats Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey.

"It's something I will never forget," said Gagner, who notched his second career hat trick. "It definitely feels good, it felt like everything I touched went in."

Hall, who has a goal in three straight, and Eberle both added three assists for the Oilers, who are 3-0-1 in their past four, still leaving them 14th in the West and 12 points back of a playoff spot. Devan Dubnyk stopped 43 shots in the win.

Barker played on Thursday for the first time since he suffered an ankle injury in November, while Nugent-Hopkins is slated to play tonight for the first time since sustaining a shoulder injury on Jan. 2. The top pick of the most recent draft has 13 goals and 22 assists on the season and still leads all rookies with 35 points.

"I'm pretty certain I'll be back tomorrow," Nugent-Hopkins told Edmonton's website.

"It's been a long road to recovery, but I'm feeling good and I'm excited to get back out there. It'll be important for me to get into the game right away, whether it be taking a hit, giving a hit or getting a couple of shots on goal."

Edmonton could use all the help it can get as it has lost seven straight to Detroit, which has points in 20 of the past 21 encounters in this series (14-1-6). The Red Wings have also won three straight while going 6-0-4 in their last 10 in Edmonton.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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